Posted: 4:37 pm Wednesday, April 6th, 2016
By Jamie Dupree
Despite a stinging loss in Wisconsin to Ted Cruz, Donald Trump certainly still has a path open to getting a majority of delegates to the Republican National Convention, but it may have to involve both primary wins and behind-the-scenes delegate deal-making as well.
So Trump lost, he's still in the drivers seat. He has won most of the states and has most of the delegates. Needs to win 60% of remaining.
— Ken in Arizona (@dayo1946) April 6, 2016
The magic number for the Republicans is 1,237, as Trump needs – depending on the news organization doing the tabulations – around 480 delegates to get to a majority to win the GOP nomination.
Delegate counts after WI:
Trump 759 (+6)
Cruz 512 (+36)
Clinton 1286 (+36)
Sanders 1077 (+47)
TBD 27 (+3)
— Taniel (@Taniel) April 6, 2016
The first poll out of New York, which votes on April 19, held good news for Trump, showing him at 52 percent, to 25 percent for John Kasich and 17 percent for Ted Cruz.
That poll was taken before Cruz’s win in Wisconsin, which means there could still be a boost for Cruz in the Empire State – but the fact that Trump is up above 50 percent is notable.
Keep in mind, Trump has tended not to win many (or really any) undecided voters… Being over 50% right now in NY is key for that reason.
— Harry Enten (@ForecasterEnten) April 6, 2016
The delegate rules in New York benefit a candidate who wins over 50 percent, both statewide and in the 27 Congressional districts.
Less than 50 percent in New York means other candidates pick up delegates, and that makes the math even more difficult for Trump to get to a convention majority.
It may seem hard to believe, the but the number of states after New York is very small – almost to the point of being easily memorized for the GOP. Here’s the list:
April 26 – Pennsylvania (71), Maryland (38), Delaware (16), Connecticut (28), Rhode Island (19)
May 3 – Indiana (57)
May 10 – Nebraska (36), West Virginia (34)
May 17 – Oregon (28)
May 24 – Washington (44)
June 7 – California (172), Montana (27), New Jersey (51), New Mexico (24), South Dakota (29)
The biggest problem for Trump is that only five of those states are true Winner-Take-All – Delaware, Nebraska, New Jersey, South Dakota and Montana.
Others are a Winner-Take-Most scenario like in Wisconsin, where you win a statewide pot of delegates then can sweep delegates in individual Congressional districts – those states are Maryland, Indiana and California.
California is a state where Trump needs to do well – especially since 172 delegates are at stake. But a new poll from there shows a much more divided delegate picture.
— Jeff B/DDHQ (@EsotericCD) April 7, 2016
If Trump is not at a majority after the final round of primaries on June 7, then he can start going after delegates one by one.
It could create a GOP convention to remember in 2016.
The Democrats have a slightly different calendar, as they have 17 states, Washington, D.C., and three territories still to vote.
The District of Columbia wraps up the Democratic race with a primary on June 14.