Another fight over ‘skewed’ polls

Another fight over ‘skewed’ polls 

Posted: 4:39 am Monday, August 15th, 2016

By Jamie Dupree

Four years ago in the race for President, Republicans were complaining about polls that were “skewed” against Mitt Romney, much as many in the GOP are arguing now that polls are biased against Donald Trump in 2016, as Trump supporters charge pollsters and the media are out to stop their candidate.

Quick question – which party were the polls “skewed” for in 2012?

The answer – Mitt Romney and the Republicans – as most polls actually underestimated the support for President Obama, both nationally and in a number of states.

“The national polls, as it turned out, were not systematically biased against Republican Mitt Romney,” wrote poll expert Harry Enten soon after the 2012 election numbers were in.

And when it comes to 2016, Enten doesn’t see anything unfair going on with the polls either.

For some, the idea of another discussion about “skewed” polls is a waste of time.

But for a lot of Trump supporters, they are adamant that the news media is intentionally skewing the polls in favor of Hillary Clinton.

If we go back to 2012, just take a look at where the polling averages were four years ago as shown by Real Clear Politics, when the national polls near the end showed President Obama with less than a one percentage point lead on Mitt Romney.

The final results gave Obama an almost four point win.

Let’s review a few numbers from the 2012 election – in some states, the polls were basically right, but in others, the averages were definitely off:

Michigan – averages had Obama +4; actual result was Obama +9.5%

New Jersey – averages had Obama +11.8%; result was Obama +17.7%

Virginia – averages had Obama +0.3%; result was Obama +3.9%

Florida – averages had Romney +1.5%; result was Obama +0.9%

Nevada – averages had Obama +2.8%; result was Obama +6.7%

New Hampshire – averages had Obama +2%; result was Obama +5.6%

North Carolina – averages had Romney +3; result was Romney +2%

Georgia – averages had Romney +10%; result was Romney +7.8%

Colorado – averages had Obama +1.5%; result was Obama +5.4%

Iowa – averages had Obama +2.4%; result was Obama +5.8%

Ohio – averages had Obama +2.9%; result was Obama +3%

As you can see, sometimes the polls were dead on – like in Ohio; but in other key states, the poll averages were not close, like Colorado, New Hampshire, Nevada, Virginia and Florida.

So – back to 2016 again – where are we right now? The poll averages for the most part show an edge to Hillary Clinton:

“Don’t let the media fool you. Trump is winning all over,” one of my readers told me on Facebook.

Are the polls skewed? Tell me why, or why not.